Impeachment is in the air! Those who have opposed the President since before he took office are now in full impeachment mode, holding hearings and demanding testimony to his nefarious ways. To many, this may seem an extreme measure to take and in many ways it is. However, American politics has always been a “blood sport”, and many Chief Executives have been deeply unpopular and attempts to remove them from power have been made.
How well has that worked? John Adams was an unpopular leader, and some of the excesses of rhetoric during his one term in office, 1797-1801, would rival the partisan divide today. But no attempt to force him from office was made; instead a vicious campaign in 1800, featuring Thomas Jefferson, Adams and Aaron Burr changed the direction the nation took. Jefferson won, and his ineffectiveness in foreign affairs led his successor, James Madison, into an ill-conceived war with Great Britain.
The next really unpopular President was also an Adams, John Quincy. The recipient of a split electoral college led him to win in 1824, even though he received fewer votes than his rival, Andrew Jackson. Subsequently, the 1828 election was a bitter, invective filled campaign between Adams and Jackson, with Jackson the winner. What ensued was an entirely different administration. Jackson had issues not thought of during Quincy Adams’ tenure; the Trail of Tears was one of the most shameful, the crisis over nullification and the Specie Act which led to the Panic of 1837 were others. But change was wanted and change was what America got.
In 1840, a “bipartisan” ticket defeated Martin Van Buren, who presided over that Panic, and was ineffectual. That ticket was made up of the Whig, William Henry Harrison and the renegade Democrat, John Tyler. Change was demanded and “Tippecanoe and Tyler Too” took office on 4 March 1841. But Harrison died one month later, and Tyler became President. He was so unpopular that he could not work with his Cabinet, who all resigned on the same day (except one) and that meant that once again America had an immensely unpopular leader. Also, Tyler was the first President to have articles of impeachment introduced in the House of Representatives, but they died quickly. He was so reviled that neither the Democrats nor the Whigs nominated him in 1844.
To replace the hapless Tyler, the electorate chose James Knox Polk to lead the United States. What, then, did the voters get to replace Tyler? They got a President who managed to push the popular narrative of Manifest Destiny, as seen in the acquisition of territory in the Northwest and in the results of the Mexican War.
Americans wanted a change from James Buchanan, who between 1857 and 1861, oversaw an increasingly bitter divide over slavery. Included in this era was another economic crisis, the Panic of 1857, the infamous Dred Scott decision, and violence in Kansas and on the floor of Congress. By the time of the 1860 election, Buchanan was sick of the job he wished for nothing else than to be out of the office.
Americans knew that change was needed, and in a four-way race, they elected Abraham Lincoln as President. That brought on the Civil War, and a divided nation. It also saw Lincoln approved of by a minority of the population. On 9 April 1865, the war ended when U. S. Grant accepted Robert E. Lee’s surrender at Appomattox Court House. But many, especially in the South, wanted change and John Wilkes Booth obliged by assassinating Lincoln on 14 April 1865. This made the former Democrat, Andrew Johnson President, and he changed Lincoln’s program for reuniting the nation, leading to an almost three year vendetta against him by Republicans and others. This included the first of two impeachments, which failed, but insured Johnson would not even run for a second term. All this turmoil achieved what positive outcome? U. S. Grant became President, popular from his leadership in the Civil War. But what came of his tenure in office? Scandals which were worse than any other administration in our long history ensued, and Radical Reconstruction, which helped the rise of the KKK and another Panic, this one in 1873.
His successor, Rutherford Hayes, only had one term, but brought an end to Reconstruction, and oversaw the beginning of the Jim Crow era. He pledged to serve only the one term (a concession to his being elected in a somewhat dubious manner), which led to the first violent change in the Presidency. James Garfield was assassinated shortly into his term, which brought Chester Arthur to the Oval Office. This removal did little in practical terms, except that Arthur managed to sign the first Civil Service Bill into law. A series of ordinary Presidents followed, with mixed results.
The next time a violent removal of a President came in 1901. William McKinley had overseen a quick (and in the words of one politician, “a splendid little war”) conflict with Spain. We received permanently Guam and Puerto Rico from this war, and the rather dull but fairly well liked McKinley was rewarded with reelection. In order to get him out of New York State politics, Republicans from the Empire State managed to place Theodore Roosevelt on the ticket as Vice-President. An anarchist shot McKinley in September 1901 while the President was in Buffalo, and eight days later, Roosevelt was Chief Executive. What did this removal do for the nation? Well, Roosevelt was the first President to use the office for passing laws that were designed to remedy societal flaws, became the first to push for extensive preservation of natural resources and managed to, in his words, “take the Panama Canal”. This foray into progressive legislation was then taken up by the Democrat, Woodrow Wilson, who won the Presidency in 1912. His legacy includes the first income tax, Prohibition and women’s right to vote. Along the way, he also presided over World War 1.
But the public was tired of progressivism and war, so when Warren Harding promised a “return to normalcy” he was elected to succeed Wilson.
What did Harding bring to the Oval Office? He brought a reputation as a ladies man (which was not unique in our Presidents, although he did sire a child out of wedlock before he became President), he also selected cabinet members who perpetrated some of the worst scandals in our history. But he escaped being blamed, since he died before some of the more egregious ones were brought to light.
Depression brought on another change in American politics. Herbert Hoover, elected in 1928, was unfairly saddled with the blame for the problem, and voters looked to Franklin Roosevelt as the answer to the previous administration. He delivered what was called the New Deal, with programs which targeted different parts of the economy. Recovery was not complete until the U. S. became the “great arsenal of democracy” leading up to World War 2.
FDR’s death in April 1945 brought an unlikely man to lead the nation, Harry Truman. He won an upset victory to retain the White House in 1948, and eventually becoming quite unpopular. Part of this was getting us involved in the Korean Conflict. When he declined to run for another term, the voters turned to the war hero, Dwight Eisenhower, to set the nation on the right course. What ensued was an era of peace and prosperity, where most were proud to have Ike as President.
John Kennedy was elected in a close contest in 1960, and all seemed well until he was assassinated in November 1963. Lyndon Johnson took over the reins of power, and unleashed the War on Poverty, Medicare and the Vietnam War on the nation. When he decided to not run for a second term on his own, a three-way split allowed Richard Nixon to take over after a bitter 1968 election.
Because of the Watergate scandal, Nixon was forced to resign, leaving the country in the hands of his Vice-President, Gerald Ford. But Watergate cast a pall over the electorate, and Jimmy Carter was called on in 1976 to bring the nation back to respectability. But ineptness in foreign and domestic policies brought on a “malaise”, in his terms, and allowed a former actor and California governor, Ronald Reagan to power. Change came. Economic revival and a return to respect from our friends and enemies were hallmarks of his administration, and he set the stage for the end of the Cold War.
Change was sought in 1992, when Reagan’s successor, George H. W. Bush lost to an obscure Arkansas governor, Bill Clinton. Although the economy boomed because of the technology sector, Clinton was dogged by accusations of scandals with women, and some unfortunate incidents, which also engulfed his wife, Hillary. His chosen candidate to succeed him, Al Gore, lost a close and disputed race with George W. Bush in 2000.
Bush’s first term was tumultuous, with the World Trade Centers being attacked and brought down. War with Afghanistan to punish those who planned, coordinated and funded the attack followed almost immediately. But in 2002 he began a war in Iraq, accusing them of harboring many weapons of mass destruction. Although reelected in 2004 against a dull candidate, Bush managed to become a quite unpopular President by the end of his second term, mostly due to the two wars and the collapse of the housing bubble.
Once again, voters turned to a little known candidate, the junior Senator from Illinois, Barack Obama. He won, and began an eight-year tenure, from which the country still hasn’t recovered. Although personally well-liked by most Americans, his policies veered sharply left on the political scale, some bordering on socialism.
We come now to the 2016 election, which saw Donald Trump defeat the first woman to run on a major party ticket for President. Since his election, many have called for his removal from office for a variety of reasons. At the present time, the House of Representatives is having an impeachment inquiry (which does not really exist), with the intent of kicking him out of the Oval Office.
What does history tell us about removing an unpopular resident of the White House? If that is done outside the voting process, (the only prior example was Richard Nixon who, facing certain impeachment and probable conviction, resigned) the result has not proven to be successful. What ensued was a period of drifting in both domestic and foreign policy. Extrapolating from that, we can assume that, if Trump is impeached by the House and convicted by a Republican Senate (an unlikely happening) with Mike Pence becoming President, current policies will continue until the 2020 election. If, assuming Pence is the nominee and is defeated, the present gridlock will prevent any major realignment. If he is successful, who knows? Will he have the House and Senate to back him? If those two bodies are split, no meaningful legislation will pass for years.
What this exercise really tells us is that those who want Trump out would be disappointed, and those who didn’t would make for a divided nation as never before. Although I do not expect another Civil War, the political scene would resemble a minefield for those who wish to run for office. Democrats and Republicans both would be split in their caucuses as well as being mortal (political) enemies with each other. It would not bode well for the country. Beware of what you wish for — you just might get it, Dems!