In American politics, the ‘October surprise’ is defined as: ‘an unexpected political event or revelation in the month before a presidential election, especially one that seems intended to influence the outcome’. This man-made phenomenon has occurred several times in elections to become part of the political science lexicon.
This term was ‘coined’ in the early 1980s, but the occurrence was widely known by students of history.
Perhaps the first attempt to manipulate events to influence an election came in 1840. During a disastrous economic depression, federal prosecutors in the Democratic administration of Martin Van Buren announced plans to charge prominent Whig politicians with fraud in a Pennsylvania event. This did not work, as the Whig, William Henry Harrison, won in a landslide.
Forty years later, in an election where the Republicans were expected to coast to a Presidential victory behind James A. Garfield, a New York paper released a three-page letter supposedly written by the candidate which encouraged Chinese immigration. This was at a time when such was unpopular with most Americans. Garfield first could not remember if he had written it or not, but his slow response cost the party. He won with just an .02% margin over his opponent
In the next election, two ‘surprises’ balanced each other out. The Democratic candidate, Grover Cleveland, was hit by charges that he, when living in Buffalo, fathered a child by a woman not his wife. On the other hand, a supporter of Republican, James G. Blaine, claimed the Democrats were the party of ‘Rum, Romanism and Rebellion’. Blaine lost.
In 1912, three men vied for the Oval Office. The incumbent, William Howard Taft, was pitted against the Governor of New Jersey, Woodrow Wilson, while a former President, Theodore Roosevelt, ran on a third party ticket. Taft’s running mate, James Sherman, died, and this with the split Republican ticket doomed his reelection and Wilson won with just 40% of the vote.
Even Franklin Roosevelt used a last-minute declaration to influence his third campaign’s win. Fearful over losing the Black vote due to an incident between one of his aides and a black police officer, FDR, just days before the election, promoted Benjamin O. Davis, to be the first black general officer in the U. S. military. In addition, he announced the creation of what would become the Tuskegee Airmen.
Sometimes the ‘out’ party works to change the dynamics of the political scene. In 1968, with Vice-President Hubert Humphrey locked into a tight race with Richard Nixon, it seems that the President was ready to call a cease-fire in Vietnam just before voting in order to get Humphrey elected. Nixon reached out to the South Vietnamese and allegedly influenced them to reject any cease fire. Nixon won in another close case, perhaps saved from an ‘October surprise’ that didn’t happen.
Jimmy Carter sought reelection in 1980, but beset with high inflation and ‘malaise’ at home and the Iran hostage crisis abroad, he needed some political victory to have a chance at a second term. Carter contemplated a plan of a military action to free the hostages, but the Iranians would not do so before voting began. Some still believe that Ronald Reagan, the Republican candidate, influenced the Iranians to not let the hostages go, but no evidence of that existed. Minutes before Reagan was inaugurated as President, the Americans were released.
Federal prosecutors got into the act in the 1992 election by indicting former Reagan Defense Secretary Caspar Weinberger, in the Iran-Contra scandal. This charge, coming in the latter stages of the campaign, along with Ross Perot’s populous candidacy, doomed Bush.
Some surprises were not of the campaigners’ doing. In 2004, a video made by Osama bin Laden, helped George W. Bush’s reelection. A deep recession in 2008 doomed John McCain’s run against Barack Obama. And candidates will, at times, cause the ‘October surprise themselves’. That was the case of Mitt Romney in 2012, when a tape made of the candidate making a statement that 47% of Americans did not pay federal taxes surfaced. Made public, this helped defeat Romney, a sentiment he shared months later.
What about the last election? An ‘October surprise’ was prevented, in part, when the FBI managed to get Facebook to downplay the infamous Hunter Biden laptop story. In a race where over 155 million voted for the two major candidates, that lack of knowledge which would have exposed the corruption of the Bidens would have been noted by the voters and not doomed President Trump’s reelection.
Now we come to the 2022 election. Most pollsters and political observers believe the Republicans will win at least the House and possibly the Senate in a ‘red wave’ election. Yet the Democrats control the House of Representatives, the Senate and the Presidency. The potential for some kind of dramatic event changing that dynamic is very much present.
What are some of the scenarios we should be aware of as the campaign winds down to November 8?
These are a few distinct possibilities out of a myriad number of surprise elements.
- Another pandemic is ‘found’ and declared, allowing for more adjustments in voting and counting procedures. This could be an extension of the Monkeypox problem, another round of COVID restrictions or some other public health scare.
- A foreign policy crisis, getting the nation to ‘rally round the flag’ and the present President. So many of these are out there. Ukraine’s problems might escalate to include America more than the billions we are giving them now. Or China could rattle enough sabers to want Americans to not ‘change horses in the middle of the stream.’ Perhaps some unknown problem with a Third World nation raises its ugly head, as in the movie The Mouse That Roared.
- Economic revival. In spite of the nation now being in a recession (mild at this point), denials of that reality and painting a picture of the American economy as thriving is designed to change the minds and thus the votes of Americans on the eve of the election. Even though inflation has been eroding our buying power over the past 18 months, issue claims that it is beginning to flatten out. Pass an Inflation Reduction bill, selling it as helping the economy flourish.
- One of the time-honored ways to shift the focus of the election is to dig up dirt on your opponents. This is what the famous Steele Dossier purported to do on Donald Trump in 2016; it failed, but it does not mean the Dems will not do more digging on Republicans in this cycle.
- Indict Donald Trump on some charge, even if it is made of whole cloth. Already the DOJ under Joe Biden has had the FBI raid Trump’s Florida home, looking for any excuse to have reason to bring him into the dock. It would not have to end in a conviction; just the indictment and tying all Republicans to Trump might do the trick for an ‘October surprise’.
- Scare the populace with the threat of a nuclear conflict. Already we have three nations who have nuclear weapons who are not our friends or allies. These — Russia, China and North Korea — would all be obliterated by our superior firepower, but the threat of nuclear war might deter some from voting for the GOP this time around. And, add to those, Iran, which is still trying to achieve inclusion in the nuclear club, and whose leaders urge Iranians to chant ‘Death to America’ each time they can.
Then there are the nuclear club members who are really wild cards in this global game. Pakistan, no friend to the United States, and their neighbor, India, also possess such weapons and with the uncertainty in that part of the world, could drag the U. S. into nuclear war.
All these and other possibilities exist for man-made and natural occurrences that would qualify for the term, ‘October surprise’. We need to keep our attention on the candidates and issues that matter to us here in the United States. We must refuse to allow such things as “October surprises” to unfairly change the direction in which it seems this election is going.
For me, the best surprise will come on November 8, as we see just how bankrupt the policies of the present administration are and how much we reject their actions.