America’s political pundits are predicting a Republican (Red) wave or tsunami in the midterm election on 8 November. Democrats seem resigned to losing their advantage in the House of Representatives and hope to keep their 50-50 count in the Senate. (With the tie vote, the Vice-President can and does break the ties with her vote.)
At the high end of the scale, some are thinking the Republicans can pick up 40 or so seats in the House, and Democrats are working hard to keep their Senators and flip some seats in that body. It seems that the high end for the Republicans will be in the 53-54 range in the Senate. If those upper numbers are achieved, it will be a historical feat for the GOP.
If that happens, Democrats will quickly pivot to blaming people and movements for the disastrous electoral defeat. Many will correctly look to the policies of the Biden administration to place the onus on for losing. Inflation, the economy, the withdrawal from Afghanistan, the porous southern border, gas and food prices — these and many other items will come in for close scrutiny when the postmortems are made.
Overriding it all will be the performance and persona of Joe Biden. He has taken many progressive ideas that have not resonated with the public. He is pro-abortion, pushes the Green New Deal, advocates for the trans community, and is generally out of sync with most Americans.
In addition to that is the perception (reality) that Biden has been sinking into dementia. He is the oldest man to be President, and his cognitive abilities have been on the decline since before he assumed the office. Increasingly, Biden has been confused, made sometimes baffling statements, forgotten simple things and it has become noticeable even to Democrats. His ‘team’ limits his appearances and does not allow him to answer questions from the press or public for fear of some new gaffe being made. Many times, the ‘White House’ has had to explain what the President ‘really’ meant in his comments.
If the Republicans have large majorities in Congress, how do the Democrats counter their now minority status? How can they govern with policies and a leader more unpopular than any other in our storied history? With policies that are unpopular, what can they do to position themselves for a comeback in 2024?
One solution is to replace the President through the 25th Amendment. This addition to the Constitution added a procedure by which vacancies in the Presidency and Vice-Presidency would be filled. Historically, the United States had experienced several periods of when we did not have a vice-president, totally over 20 years. Finally this was changed, and once the Amendment was ratified in 1967, it was used when Spiro Agnew resigned as Vice-President in 1973, and again the next year when Richard Nixon resigned during the Watergate scandal.
The Amendment itself is divided into four sections; the first three deal with the two offices when death or resignation take place. But the fourth deals when an incumbent is removed by ‘hostile’ action by the Vice-President, Cabinet or other designated officials.
It seems to me that such an occurrence would never materialize. However, if a credible effort to remove Biden, for malfeasance in office or inability to physically do the job, a resignation is probable. This would provide those who wanted to remove him, which would of necessity include both Democrats and Republicans, with another dilemma. Vice-President Kamala Harris would assume the Presidency, and then another person would be appointed to the Vice-Presidency, as happened when Nixon resigned and Gerald Ford became Chief Executive.
Who would be appointed to fill Harris’ office? Such an appointment must be approved by majority vote of both the House and the Senate, and with the Republicans controlling those bodies, we might have gridlock on that and have no Vice-President until after the 2024 election. During that time, the next in line of succession to the Presidency is the Speaker of the House. After January 3, that will probably be Keven McCarthy, a Republican. Can we spell chaos?
However, Harris is, if possible, less popular than Biden, and has shown little ability to run her own office, let alone to perform admirably in the higher office. And, if she serves the remainder of Biden’s term, she would be the logical nominee in 2024. But most political observers believe Harris would be easy pickings for whomever the Republicans nominated in that election.
That said, can the Democrats stand another two years of ineffective leadership from Joe Biden? If he has had problems while his party held power over the Legislative Branch and the Executive Branch, what would he accomplish when Congress is controlled by the opposing party? It is a conundrum, to say the least.
Who would suffer under that scenario? The American people would see the Federal government in a deadlock never seen before, as Biden’s stature, his popularity, is lower than any other occupant of the Oval Office. No solutions to domestic and world problems would be forthcoming, for the President has shown no propensity for cooperation with the GOP, and the Republicans have disdained reaching across the aisle, since they have been vilified by the majority party for the past two years.
This is why we should pray for America. We are headed into uncharted waters, politically. Only an inspired leadership can lead us out of our wilderness, and, so far, I see none on the horizon. May God heal our land!